Beckett Bull-Bear Algorithmic Stock Strategy

Beckett ATR RSI Algo is a rules-based swing-trading algorithm backtested from February 16, 2010 through August 14, 2026. Across the 15 full calendar years from 2011 through 2025, the Algo produced a profit in 14 of 15 years. Its edge does not come from winning every trade: approximately 40% of trades lose money, but historically the strategy gained about $1.30 for every $1.00 lost. Over many trades, that favorable payoff structure produced powerful compounding. All results shown are TradingView backtest results and do not represent actual trading performance. This is a high-growth, high-volatility strategy designed to be evaluated over one year or longer—not week by week or month by month. Short-term results can be choppy and misleading. Roughly 30% of months were negative in the backtest, so investors need to be comfortable allowing the strategy's statistical edge to play out over a long series of trades rather than abandoning it during an inevitable losing period. WHY THE STRATEGY IS INTERESTING From 2011 through 2025, the Beckett ATR RSI Algo produced 51.89% compound annual growth, compared with 14.07% for the S&P 500 and 18.57% for the NASDAQ-100. The strategy's annual-return Sortino ratio was 4.01, compared with 3.11 for the S&P 500 and 2.46 for the NASDAQ-100. Sortino measures the amount of return generated relative to harmful downside volatility. A higher score is better. In simple terms, the Beckett ATR RSI Algo historically generated more return for each unit of downside risk than either benchmark. That does not mean the strategy had smaller swings. It means the returns historically compensated investors more generously for the downside risk they experienced. WHY IT CAN WORK EVEN WITH LOSING TRADES A trading strategy does not need to win all the time. The Beckett ATR RSI Algo historically lost on approximately 40% of its trades, but the average relationship between gains and losses was favorable: roughly $1.30 gained for every $1.00 lost. That payoff advantage, repeated across hundreds of trades, is what drives the long-term result. This means an investor can experience losing trades, losing weeks, and losing months while the longer-term strategy is still functioning as designed. WHO THIS STRATEGY IS FOR The Beckett ATR RSI Algo is designed for investors who: can evaluate performance over one year or longer; understand that losing trades and negative months are normal; can tolerate substantial fluctuations in account value; do not require short-term capital stability; and can stay with a rules-based strategy during difficult periods rather than abandoning it because of short-term performance. This is not a strategy for someone who needs a smooth ride. THE CASE FOR CAUTION The Beckett ATR RSI Algo can experience severe volatility and large drawdowns. The clearest historical example occurred in 2022, when the strategy lost 68.47% during the calendar year. A decline of 68.47% requires approximately a 217% gain just to return to breakeven. The backtest subsequently produced a 264.53% gain in 2023, more than recovering the prior year's loss. There is no assurance, however, that a future recovery would occur as quickly or be as large. For this reason, the strategy is unsuitable for investors who may need to withdraw capital during a major drawdown, who are likely to liquidate during periods of severe volatility, or who cannot tolerate a substantial temporary decline in account value. BOTTOM LINE The Beckett ATR RSI Algo is built around a simple statistical idea: You do not need to win every trade if your gains are consistently larger than your losses. Historically, approximately 40% of trades lost money, yet the strategy gained roughly $1.30 for every $1.00 lost, helping it produce profitable calendar years in 14 of 15 years during the backtest. Its 51.89% compound annual growth and 4.01 Sortino ratio were substantially higher than the corresponding results for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 over the tested period. The trade-off is significant volatility. This strategy is therefore best suited to a patient investor with a one-year-or-longer investment horizon who is comfortable accepting substantial short-term volatility in pursuit of higher long-term growth. METHODOLOGY AND IMPORTANT LIMITATIONS Results are derived from a TradingView Strategy Tester backtest covering 952 trades beginning February 16, 2010. All results are backtested and do not represent actual trading performance. Backtests have inherent limitations, benefit from hindsight, and may not reflect actual market execution. The backtest assumes zero commissions. Real-world commissions, spreads, slippage, execution differences, taxes, and other costs may reduce returns. Past performance and backtested performance do not guarantee future results.

15-Year backtest: 51.89% Compound Annual Growth | Sortino 4.01 vs. 3.11 for the S&P 500. A higher Sortino score is better; in our case, it represents roughly $4 of return for every $1 of downside risk | More Volatile, but Better Downside Risk-Adjusted Performance